Today, almost a year after Egypt’s uprisings that led to the resignation of the president, Hosni Mubarak, and inspired mass protests in other parts of the Arab world, the revolution is still incomplete: the power remains in the hands of the military, which is increasingly seen by Egyptian people as a new oppressor. But does incompleteness necessarily mean a failure?
The end of Mubarak’s 30 years of autocratic rule demonstrated that a transition to a new, democratic regime is not as impossible as some may have previously imagined. However, the reluctance of the military to give up power adds uncertainty to the situation.
The growing public agitation manifested itself in thousands of protestors taking to the streets on the eve of the parliamentary elections in November, but this time against the military regime. At least 40 demonstrators were reported dead as a result of a brutal crackdown. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces posted an apology on Facebook for the deaths of protesters.
The Justice Party, representing a coalition of different groups, and the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom Party were clearly the winners in the elections, but the new parliament is still subordinate to martial law. To many Egyptians, this suggests that the military, which initially said it would hold power for six months until parliamentary and presidential elections and the writing of a new constitution, may be as oppressive as the previous regime. The promises by the military to give power back in June 2012 leave out many details of the exact procedure, which leads people to suspect that the summer of 2012 will not put an end to post-revolutionary political struggles.
The recent developments further showed that Egyptian people are tired of uncertainty. On Jan. 25, thousands of protesters marked the first anniversary of the uprisings. They demanded that the military gve up power immediately and without any immunity from prosecution. When members of the Muslim Brotherhood made an attempt to prevent the march from reaching parliament, the crowd’s anger shifted to a new target.
Another side of this that has prolonged revolution is the economic hardships it brought to the country. The devaluation of Egyptian currency in the face of political turmoil threatens to dramatically increase the prices of food and other goods. In addition, the government may soon have no choice but to stop the system of energy subsidies, which currently represents a fifth of government expenditures. The lack of hard currency Egypt is likely to experience in the near future could have been prevented if the military had agreed to a $3.2 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but they rejected the loan, seeing it as an infringement of the country’s sovereignty.
As the financial crisis escalates, the military and the Muslim Brotherhood are considering an even bigger loan from the IMF. In this atmosphere of political uncertainty, there is no reason to believe that the revolution has failed. Despite the tensions between different groups, significant progress has been achieved from a year before. Although it is not clear how long it will take the country to complete its transition to a new regime, the Egyptian people have made it clear that they will not wait for long.
Related posts:
- Elections sweep Egypt after revolution
- Egypt and Tunisia: Recapping the aftermath
- Protests continue in Egypt as Mubarak remains defiant
- Tunisia after the revolution
- Crowds attend UMass march for change in Egypt
